Digital Flare Model

The project was designed around three-phases of activity to focus on the important attributes of a flexible digital flare model, including spatial, temporal and spectral characteristics to improve platform survivability and flare specification activities.

Trial campaign data and third-party models from DSTG and its international collaborators were used to efficiently model the broad range of variables and simulate behaviours in laboratory and virtual environments to understand flare countermeasure effectiveness under operational conditions.

This involved complex statistical analysis of flare intensities and trajectories, and creating models for simulating transient intensity profiles and realistic trajectories. The key activities included:

• Collation of existing empirically sourced flare data collected over numerous field Test and Evaluation campaigns
• Review of data sets for coverage, trend and sensitivity analysis including identification of gaps and problematic aspects of the data sets (using correlation and analysis algorithms)
• Review of digital flare modelling techniques, methods and tools both of empirical and theoretical basis
• Investigation and experimentation into mathematical and physical constructs and techniques to replicate spatial and temporal trends observed in the data sets (methods included Bayesian and Frequentist models and fitting procedures as well as Fourier transform time series analysis)
• Liaising with Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) within the Australian Airborne Countermeasures Team (AACT) for technical review and feedback on analytic outcomes and modelling approaches.